Team Trials Scoring Stats - reprocessed to 2016 scoring method
This is an analysis of the 2005-2015 US Orienteering team trials results
assuming the 2016 scoring methodolgy across the whole set. All the trials
race scores in a given year were counted, with no dropped results or ranking
score included. The original scoring lists containing the trials results are
avilable online here:
2005-2014:
http://www.us.orienteering.org/us-teams/senior/trials
2015:
http://www.attackpoint.org/discussionthread.jsp/message_1050707#message1051063
Here are the processed stats. These are plain text, name on left, then 3-5
race scores, with the total score the last number on the right (sorted on the
total score). The score just left of the total score (2nd from right,
separated from the others by whitespace) is the sprint race score. A "*" on
the far right indicates the Sprint winner. A "D" indicates someone who
declined a spot on the team.
Name Race_1 ... Race_N-1 Race_Sprint Total_Score Notes
----------------------------------------------------------------
2005_sprint_score_men
2005_sprint_score_women
2006_sprint_score_men
2006_sprint_score_women
2007_sprint_score_men
2007_sprint_score_women
2008_sprint_score_men
2008_sprint_score_women
2009_sprint_score_men
2009_sprint_score_women
2010_sprint_score_men
2010_sprint_score_women
2011_sprint_score_men
2011_sprint_score_women
2012_sprint_score_men
2012_sprint_score_women
2013_sprint_score_men
2013_sprint_score_women
2014_sprint_score_men
2014_sprint_score_women
2015_sprint_score_men
2015_sprint_score_women
Was the sprint winner also one of the top N overall scorers:
Raw data, N=
one
two
three
four
five
Probability of sprint winner (based on 2005-2015 results):
M W Mand/orW Both Neither
----------------------------------------------------------------
in top one 36% 45% 73% 9% 27%
in top two 55% 55% 82% 27% 18% (2016, top two automatic)
in top three 64% 73% 100% 36% 0%
in top four 73% 73% 100% 45% 0%
in top five 73% 73% 100% 45% 0%
----------------------------------------------------------------
Past Declines Affecting the Sprint Winner and/or Top Two Scorers
- In 2005 the top two men on the scoring list, including the sprint
winner (May and Walker) declined. That is, all three of the
2016-defined automatic selections declined.
- In 2006 one of the top two men on the scoring list declined (Platt).
The other was also the sprint winner, which would have resulted
in only a single automatic selection that year.
- In 2010 one of the top two men on the scoring list declined
(Granovskiy). The other was NOT the sprint winner, so there would
have been only two automatic selections that year. However,
the sprint winner was third on the scoring list (Smith)
and would move into second following the decline.
As far as I can tell there were no declinations among the women in the 2005-
2015 time frame.
Team Trials Sprint winners, 2005-2015:
sprint_winners_women.txt
sprint_winners_men.txt
Team Trials Overall winners, 2005-2015:
overall_winners_women.txt
overall_winners_men.txt
Team Trials Attendance, 2005-2015 (straight counts of all names in the online
scoring lists):
tt_attendance.gif
